Android has 3 times as much share as Apple, and Ramon Llamas is about to get hit with an Apple fanblogger attack for reporting this

Ramon Llamas is the smartphone analyst at IDC and from what I can tell he’s a really nice guy. But he’s about to have a very bad day.

You see, Ramon just did something insane: He put out a press release predicting that in 2016 Apple will be eclipsed by Microsoft and end up in third place in the smartphone market, with Android in first place and Windows Phone in second.

Llamas predicts Apple’s market share will decline to 19.0% in 2016 versus 20.5% today.

To reiterate: Ramon is saying that Apple’s share of the market will actually be lower in the future than it is today. Heresy!

One bright spot for Apple fans is that Llamas says Android also will decline. Llamas says Android has hit its peak and will fall from 61.0% to 52.9% in 2016. However, that still puts Android in first place.

As for Microsoft, Llamas predicts the Borg will jump from 5.2% to 19.2% in 2016, just edging out Apple. How on earth can this guy believe that Microsoft will have any kind of share in mobile phones? They’re too late. They missed the boat. They’re done. Toast.

Mobile, you see, is supposed to be the place where Apple finally exacts revenge on the Borg for what happened in the personal computer market.

So of course in the world of Apple fanbloggers this crazy talk from Llamas represents an attack on the Mothership and must be countered. How long until the mockery begins?

Frankly I don’t put much stock in predictions, and I personally don’t care which platform has what share. I like all three platforms and could be happy using any of them. But I do enjoy watching Apple’s unpaid PR Cylons go into full foaming-at-the-mouth attack mode.

Feel free to post comments reminding the world of the following things:

* Apple makes more profit than all other phone makers combined.

* Apple sells only 3 models versus 3 zillion Android models.

* Android is a rip-off of Apple and Apple will sue it out of existence.

* The iPhone’s tiny screen is actually the perfect size because your thumb can reach every part of the screen.

* The iPhone has buttery smooth scrolling that is pleasing to technology connoisseurs.

* Verizon and AT&T both reported the iPhone made up the majority of their smartphone sales.

* Android is fragmented and developers hate it, but they love iOS.

Those things are all true.

And yet I just did the math and it appears that Android, with 61% market share, has roughly three times as much market share as iOS. Can that really be true? Three times as much?

This isn’t a prediction. This is where things stand today.

If I didn’t know better, I’d say that Android is the top-selling platform, and by a fairly large measure. But I’m confused, because of course this can’t be true because we all know that Apple has won.

If I were Apple, or an Apple fanblogger, I would just do what North Carolina has done with climate change, and simply pass a law that makes it illegal to report numbers that contradict our worldview.

Anyway. For now it looks as if Android, which came into the market after Apple, has three times as much market share. Three times.

And even four years from now, Android will still have nearly three times as much share as Apple.

Even if you hate Google, and hate Android, you must admit that’s a pretty significant accomplishment.

Or don’t admit it. That’s fine too.

Good luck today, Ramon. Beware the Cylon Raiders.

18 Responses to “Android has 3 times as much share as Apple, and Ramon Llamas is about to get hit with an Apple fanblogger attack for reporting this”

  1. Darwin

    A prediction in 2016…yeah…who cares. Your anti-apple bias is ridiculous Dan. Android is more widespread than Apple because it is cheaper and in many cases free. So…Apple makes dramatically more profit as do iOS developers and the entire ecosystem. Hell Google makes more money from iOS than they do Android which is truly pathetic. So what happened Dan that you have such a ridiculous anti-apple problem that you continually embarrass yourself with these articles? Did they not invite you to a press meeting or something? You jumped the shark on this a long time ago and have zero credibility. Really, its painful to see these articles because you look so foolish.

    Reply
  2. Darwin

    Oh and everyone else math shows Android has twice the market share world wide but is about even with iOS in the U.S.

    Reply
  3. James Pakele

    @Darwin hasn’t Apple offered lower prices and free models since last year?

    Reply
  4. Bob

    Classic! And accurate. The iTard horde are predictable, repetitive, and lame. Just like this “Darwin” dunce above.

    Reply
  5. Pat

    Ramon truly is a great guy. We went to B school together. He may not be right on this one, but folks should just calm down a bit and let the guy have an opinion…

    Reply
  6. Martinus

    “But I do enjoy watching Apple’s unpaid PR Cylons go into full foaming-at-the-mouth attack mode.”

    Me too. It’s funny watching they behavior, but it’s also sad to know that that unpaid fanatics are grown people fighting for a gadget!

    Reply
  7. Antonio Fonseca

    Well, I think writing this kind of stuff you are not substantially different from those you call “Apple’s unpaid PR Cylons”.

    You may be even less coherent, because you don’t seem to believe in anything and write this type of things possibly just to provoke them.

    Returning to the analysis of Ramon Llamas, it seems to me that you even considered an important factor before giving full endorsement: the license model of Android versus Windows.

    That is, the rapid expansion of the installed base of Android occurred largely because we are talking about a freeware operating system, which does not happen with Windows Phone today and nothing indicates that this will change with Windows 8 in the future.

    Think about it.

    Reply
  8. Nick

    @ToniFonseca I think licensing is less of an issue, $15 more or less does not make a difference if you have a product that is selling like hot cakes. Android has a bigger advantage in that it is fully customizable by the manufacturers, so they feel they can better differentiate, build their own brand, unique services…

    Not to mention that it is a better OS than the other two with full multitasking so you can implement meaningful features in the way that makes sense, no artificial limitations etc.

    Reply
  9. Anh

    If Apple had a cheaper data plan, they would have a better market share. Not everyone is willing to pay roughly $100 for data and phone service when they can get the same service with a lesser android phone. #fact

    Reply
  10. Steve

    darwin is a perfect example who is an isheep. Contrary to Darwin’s theory which explains evolution, deeply sad you are “evolved” to an isheep.

    Reply
  11. Elder Norm

    Bob, “Classic! And accurate. The iTard horde are predictable, repetitive, and lame. Just like this “Darwin” dunce above.”

    WOW, so well typed and so Android of you…

    Hey, Android has more market share that Apple. And if you take all the phones of all kinds in the world, Apple has what, 1% share. Apple must be doomed.

    Actually Apple pointed out that web use wise, it currently is running about 90% with Android doing about 10%, Guess all those market share Android phones are taking up space in a drawer somewhere. WOW. Just so great to have market share.

    To Dan, Saw all the facts you listed above to dissuade commenters. Yep, PROFIT, WEB USE, customer approval ratings….. all these things are crap compared to market share. So, you have totally nailed it.

    PS, Did Steve Jobs do something terrible to you or your family to hate Apple so so much. I mean its a company with some workers, trying hard to make good product. Hmm, maybe its Microsoft you have a problem with.

    You know they make such good products like, Plays-for-sure, Win CE, Zune, Kin 1&2, The Big Ass table, and now the Small ass table (surface).

    Any way. Buy what you like, use what you buy. Have a nice weekend.

    Reply

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