Ramon Llamas is the smartphone analyst at IDC and from what I can tell he’s a really nice guy. But he’s about to have a very bad day.
You see, Ramon just did something insane: He put out a press release predicting that in 2016 Apple will be eclipsed by Microsoft and end up in third place in the smartphone market, with Android in first place and Windows Phone in second.
Llamas predicts Apple’s market share will decline to 19.0% in 2016 versus 20.5% today.
To reiterate: Ramon is saying that Apple’s share of the market will actually be lower in the future than it is today. Heresy!
One bright spot for Apple fans is that Llamas says Android also will decline. Llamas says Android has hit its peak and will fall from 61.0% to 52.9% in 2016. However, that still puts Android in first place.
As for Microsoft, Llamas predicts the Borg will jump from 5.2% to 19.2% in 2016, just edging out Apple. How on earth can this guy believe that Microsoft will have any kind of share in mobile phones? They’re too late. They missed the boat. They’re done. Toast.
Mobile, you see, is supposed to be the place where Apple finally exacts revenge on the Borg for what happened in the personal computer market.
So of course in the world of Apple fanbloggers this crazy talk from Llamas represents an attack on the Mothership and must be countered. How long until the mockery begins?
Frankly I don’t put much stock in predictions, and I personally don’t care which platform has what share. I like all three platforms and could be happy using any of them. But I do enjoy watching Apple’s unpaid PR Cylons go into full foaming-at-the-mouth attack mode.
Feel free to post comments reminding the world of the following things:
* Apple makes more profit than all other phone makers combined.
* Apple sells only 3 models versus 3 zillion Android models.
* Android is a rip-off of Apple and Apple will sue it out of existence.
* The iPhone’s tiny screen is actually the perfect size because your thumb can reach every part of the screen.
* The iPhone has buttery smooth scrolling that is pleasing to technology connoisseurs.
* Verizon and AT&T both reported the iPhone made up the majority of their smartphone sales.
* Android is fragmented and developers hate it, but they love iOS.
Those things are all true.
And yet I just did the math and it appears that Android, with 61% market share, has roughly three times as much market share as iOS. Can that really be true? Three times as much?
This isn’t a prediction. This is where things stand today.
If I didn’t know better, I’d say that Android is the top-selling platform, and by a fairly large measure. But I’m confused, because of course this can’t be true because we all know that Apple has won.
If I were Apple, or an Apple fanblogger, I would just do what North Carolina has done with climate change, and simply pass a law that makes it illegal to report numbers that contradict our worldview.
Anyway. For now it looks as if Android, which came into the market after Apple, has three times as much market share. Three times.
And even four years from now, Android will still have nearly three times as much share as Apple.
Even if you hate Google, and hate Android, you must admit that’s a pretty significant accomplishment.
Or don’t admit it. That’s fine too.
Good luck today, Ramon. Beware the Cylon Raiders.