July 29th, 2008 // 17 Comments
Filed: Tech
Here is Apple’s stock chart since May. In that time period Apple has reported strong earnings and released a smash hit product, the 3G iPhone. It’s had lines out the doors of its retail stores, and has had to start opening earlier in the day to accommodate demand. To be sure, Apple also has warned about product transitions and soft consumer demand. And MobileMe has had some issues. But the real reason for the decline is the way Apple has totally mishandled questions about Dear Leader’s health. Investors are punishing Apple for it, using the only weapon they have. The stock has gone from $190 in early June to $155 today. That’s what? Close to $40 billion that’s gone up in smoke?
I’m not sure where you’ve been all summer but that’s what the stock chart for the entire market looks like, good news or not. AAPL is still outperforming the Dow Jones industrial average over the past 3 months.
So this is all happening in a vacuum with no impact from our tanking economy?
Dare has a point – it’s an almost exact match, for example, for the pattern of Microsoft’s shares.
But there’s only one problem with that point: Microsoft has been going through tough times, with the persistent failure of Vista, Gates leaving, and internal wrangling that give the impression that the company is basically rudderless. Apple, on the other hand, has had stellar financials, huge hit products, and massive growth sales for all its product lines.
With those results you would expect Apple to outperform Microsoft. The fact that they aren’t can only be down to doubts over Jobs’ health, or rather the very poor handling for it by Apple PR.
If moving from $190 to $155 os $40B up in smoke is the move from February to May that took the stock from $120 to $180 is what $70B out of his ass?
That’s nothing compared with what’s about to happen if the rumors regarding Job’s health come true. The stock will lose more than 40%.
Wow. Just wow. Dan, sorry about this but you couldn’t be *more* wrong. Check the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, the Dow Jones Industrials. They ALL look just like that. Apple is a big player now and is suffering with all the other large companies.
I feel like I’m still reading Fake Steve…..
For your instruction
http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=0&chds=0&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&chdeh=1&chdet=1217336960201&chddm=24633&cmpto=INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC;INDEXDJX:.DJI;INDEXSP:.INX&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&
Glenn is spot on. The trend is shared by the market as a whole. For example, take a look at Google during that same period. The trend down is exactly the same. However, you are knowledgeable enough to know that before you posted your blog entry. This blog is starting to look like flame bait. I’m sorry you are moving in that direction.
But, on the other hand, the weakness in the wider market is due to poor performance. Poor sales, poor financials, poor operations. Apple doesn’t suffer from those symptoms. They do have one “common bug”, poor corporate governance.
Sure, it’s happening all over. It’s just that in this instance, they have something else to jump on. Whether they should or not is another story. The fact is, it’s a question the investors and stockholders are able to use. And the fact that Apple isn’t answering them isn’t helping.
Now while obviously stockholders would LIKE to know about Dear Leader’s health… the man still has a right to his privacy.
If Cheney can have several heart attacks while VP and keep that secret (you didn’t REALLY buy the “secure undisclosed location” bullshit, did you?)… then I think Jobs can keep his health private too.
Privacy is not something you need executive privelege to have, despite the best efforts of conservatives to make it so.
Dan,
It is too simplistic to claim that a PR-this or PR-that affected the stock price.
Instead, send an expedition to Intel PR dept to find out more about Intel Core Duo 2. Their product labels are confusing at best. Is Core Duo 2 at 1.8GHz faster than Core Duo at 2.4GHz? Is it Mama Mia faster or more like Uno, Duo, Tres, Duo kinda faster?
And what’s up with Penryn name? God of Pen-computing?
How about some clarity from Intel?
Dare, I do think Dan has a point here. Although the market is not doing well, comparison over the same period with specific peer sets does not really support the “whole market tanking” view.
This is undergrad level finance stuff.
Which company’s stock is worth more? The one that just announced a brand new product or the one that just released a brand new product two weeks ago?
Or… think about it this way. You might have bought “Dark Knight” stock at $180 two months ago but would you buy it at $180 today, knowing it’s already earned most of its box office money?
The high point for (potential short-term) growth passed the minute iPhone v2 was released, so the stock declines. This is perfectly naturual. After all, Apple isn’t likely sell one million iphones in a weekend sometime in August are they? The stock will float until iJobs announces another fantastic new iProduct and the stock will get an iBump back to its previous iLevels.
This off-the-record.
Screw the rest of the market. There’s some heavily-leveraged short positions taken by a couple of big money outfits. Whatever it takes, AAPL has to head down, at least until the positions get closed mid-October. With a 9-figure profit to look forward to, buying all kinds of hacks to drive the stock down is penny ante.